Playing to the scoring rules
Not the cleverest goals model, but the best pick under the exact Scorito scoring rules.
Approach
Bookmaker odds with the margin removed became expected goals and scoreline probabilities (Dixon-Coles). For each match the model picked the scoreline with the most expected pool points, including position-weighted top-scorer picks.
Result
Built with an autonomous team of Claude Code agents and used live during the 2026 World Cup, through the quarter-finals.
Technology
PythonDixon-ColesPydanticClaude Code
Let's connect
mannes@mokkenstorm.com